© 2003, Rotary Club of Charleston

P.O. Box 21029
Charleston, SC 29413-1029

Club secretary:
Carroll Schweers
chasrot@comcast.net

Parish paints pretty picture for upcoming year
Local economic forecaster predicts a strong year in 2004

JAN. 6, 2004 - Al Parish, professor of Business and Economics at Charleston Southern University and director of the Center for Economic Forecasting at the Charleston Metro Chamber of Commerce and Charleston Southern University, shared with Rotarians his predictions for a strong economic picture in 2004.

Parish began by telling Club members that he thinks 2004 may be the strongest financial year in 20 years. He noted GDP growth, economic spending, low inflation and low interest rates, among other topics affecting us on a national basis in the coming year. He predicted that the Dow and S&P will rise about 10-15 % this year, and also expected the NASDAQ to make overall gains in 2004.

Parish also said that we should see a great and rapid increase in the use of hybrid cars and SUVs over the next two years, thereby reducing our dependence on foreign oil, and changing the international political landscape. Barring an unpredicted "fiasco," Parrish also predicted that George W. Bush will be reelected as President in 2004. "This is not going to be a close election at all," said Parish.

On the local front, Parish cited numerous areas of record economic growth during 2003, including employment levels, retail sales, existing home sales, and new home construction. He predicted that these growth trends will continue in 2004, although perhaps at slightly lower levels than in 2003.

He also said that area residents and businesses have done "a good job" soliciting alternative airline carriers, like Air Tran, and suggested that a decision by Air Tran about whether to enter the Charleston market could come as early as March of this year. If Air Tran brings flights to this area, Parish said that it will result in fare decreases from other airlines servicing Charleston, like Delta, and will make Charleston more attractive to businesses considering a headquarters or other space here.

Two areas of concern for 2004, according to Parish, are the soon-to-be lack of public transportation, which he said is "absurd" and will make Charleston a "laughing stock" nationally, and tax reform, which could result in lower or nonexistent property taxes but increased sales taxes. --

In other business...

John Milkereit gave the invocation and led us in the Pledge of Allegiance, and Cindy Williams welcomed our guests and visiting Rotarians. Chris Kerrigan offered a New Year's version of Health and Happiness. Anita Zucker offered a Rotary Moment and congratulated Ricky Bailey on 24 years of perfect attendance. Ann Moise introduced our guest speaker, Al Parish.

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